As Syria undergoes a transformative period following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkey is strategically positioning itself to influence the emerging political landscape. Turkey’s goals include establishing a stable, pro-Turkey provisional government, curbing Kurdish autonomy, bolstering its business interests, and repatriating Syrian refugees. However, this assertive strategy risks intensifying tensions with regional actors like Israel.

Turkey’s Strategic Moves

In the aftermath of Assad’s fall, Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, emphasized the importance of unifying Syrian opposition groups. This came as Turkish-backed forces, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), advanced against Kurdish fighters, whom Turkey regards as terrorists. The Turkish-led effort to secure Kurdish withdrawal from Manbij underscores Ankara’s determination to consolidate control along its border. Simultaneously, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced plans to open additional border crossings to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, signaling Turkey’s broader ambitions in Syria.

While Ankara denies direct involvement in the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive that led to Damascus’s fall, Turkey’s longstanding support for the Syrian opposition and military operations against Kurdish forces have significantly shaped the trajectory of Syria’s civil war. Turkey’s involvement reflects its dual objectives: securing national security and fostering influence over a post-Assad Syria.

Refugee Dynamics and Domestic Pressures

Turkey currently hosts over three million Syrian refugees, a number that has fueled domestic discontent amid economic challenges. Initially welcoming refugees under an “open door” policy, Turkey’s stance has shifted as the prolonged conflict strained public tolerance. Anti-refugee sentiment has grown, prompting the government to explore repatriation strategies, including opening new border crossings and providing reconstruction aid to encourage returns.

The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has also criticized the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) for its handling of the refugee issue. The CHP advocates for a comprehensive repatriation plan to address domestic concerns while maintaining national security.

Kurdish Question and Military Operations

Turkey’s efforts to prevent the establishment of a semi-autonomous Kurdish entity in Syria remain central to its policy. Ankara is likely to leverage its influence over Syria’s new leadership to counter Kurdish aspirations. If the United States reduces its military presence in Syria, Turkey may intensify operations against Kurdish groups, particularly the PKK/YPG, along its border.

Economic and Geopolitical Implications

Turkey’s ambitions extend beyond security concerns to economic opportunities. By supporting the formation of a provisional Syrian government, Ankara aims to secure international aid and business contracts for its defense and construction sectors. Turkey’s burgeoning arms industry, exemplified by its Bayraktar drones, and its extensive construction capabilities position it as a key player in Syria’s reconstruction.

Regional and International Ramifications

Turkey’s growing influence in Syria is likely to strain relations with Israel, which has already conducted extensive military operations targeting Assad-era weaponry. As Israel opposes Turkish-backed advances and bolsters support for Kurdish forces, the potential for a proxy conflict involving rival Syrian factions looms large.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s strained ties with Western allies over its engagement with HTS could complicate efforts to secure international legitimacy for the new Syrian government. However, a shift in HTS’s approach toward inclusivity could pave the way for sanctions relief and international recognition, further advancing Turkey’s strategic goals.

Outlook

Turkey’s proactive involvement in shaping Syria’s future underscores its regional ambitions. While this strategy presents economic and geopolitical opportunities, it also carries significant risks, including heightened regional tensions and domestic backlash. As the situation evolves, Turkey’s ability to balance these competing pressures will determine the success of its Syrian policy.