Kenya's Prime Cabinet Secretary, Musalia Mudavadi, announced that the government is aiming to secure a new support deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by November. Speaking to Bloomberg on April 16, Mudavadi emphasized the need for a "realistic" program that takes into account global trade uncertainties and a likely decrease in development aid from key donors such as the United States and European countries.

The government’s targeted timeline is designed to ease the pressure on Kenya to implement drastic fiscal measures in the upcoming 2025-26 budget, which is set to be approved by Parliament in June. While this could help avoid widespread unrest similar to the protests seen in 2024, demonstrations may still occur due to President William Ruto’s ongoing unpopularity and the anticipated introduction of gradual fiscal reforms. Mudavadi’s statement suggests that the Kenyan government will push the IMF for a more flexible fiscal consolidation plan to mitigate protest risks. However, the IMF will likely insist on a plan that ensures Kenya's medium-term fiscal trajectory moves toward debt sustainability.

Any disagreements between Kenya and the IMF regarding the fiscal consolidation timeline could delay the new support deal, exerting downward pressure on the Kenyan shilling and raising borrowing costs. Additionally, the IMF may call for anti-corruption and transparency reforms as part of the agreement, which could clash with Ruto’s political patronage system.

Kenya formally requested a new IMF program in late March, following its failure to secure the final $850 million tranche of its 2021 support package. This came after the country’s fiscal deficit widened to 5.1% of GDP in 2024-25, following the government’s decision to withdraw the controversial Finance Bill 2024 in response to deadly protests.