Bad news first: The price of your next smartphone could rise due to the recently imposed 10% tariff on Chinese imports by President Donald Trump.

But here’s the good news: It may take some time before those price increases affect consumers, and even then, the impact might not be as severe as expected.

Many smartphones are already stocked in the U.S., whether as brand-new devices in warehouses or secondhand phones on the market. Plus, promotional deals often keep retail prices stable. Most Americans also purchase phones through monthly installment plans, spreading the cost over time. For example, a $100 price increase might only add a few extra dollars to a monthly bill—noticeable, but not necessarily a dealbreaker.

The tariff, which took effect on Tuesday and led to a swift response from Beijing, is expected to raise prices on a wide range of everyday goods, from toys to silverware. The tech industry, however, faces a unique challenge, as major U.S. companies like Apple rely heavily on Chinese supply chains. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, communication and computer equipment were the top two categories of Chinese imports in 2024.

No Immediate Impact on Smartphone Prices

Despite concerns, analysts do not expect an immediate rise in smartphone prices. Changes are unlikely to reach consumers until later this year, if at all.

“The impact depends on how long the tariffs last and how widespread they are,” said Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities. “Right now, we don’t anticipate any major price hikes. The situation seems under control.”

Most Buyers Don’t Pay Full Price Upfront

Research from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners indicates that 55% of U.S. consumers buy phones through installment plans, including basic mobile phones. Another study by the International Data Corporation (IDC) found that most postpaid smartphones in the U.S. are financed by carriers.

These financing options typically allow customers to spread payments over 24 to 36 months, keeping monthly costs manageable. Additionally, when high-profile phones—like the iPhone 16—launch, carriers often introduce promotions that allow customers to upgrade for little to no upfront cost, provided they trade in an old device.

However, these deals usually come with conditions, such as requiring users to sign up for a new line or switch to a specific data plan.

“The carriers are pushing new phones aggressively to keep customers locked into their services for longer,” said Josh Lowitz, co-founder of Consumer Intelligence Research Partners.

If similar promotions continue, many buyers might avoid price hikes altogether by trading in their old devices and selecting the right data plan.

A Growing Market for Used Smartphones

Not everyone is splurging on the latest model. In fact, the market for used and refurbished smartphones is expanding rapidly. Global shipments of refurbished phones grew by 6.4% in 2023, according to IDC. In the U.S., 60% of consumers have either purchased a used phone or are open to the idea.

“Thanks to frequent trade-ins, there’s a better selection of used devices available,” said Nabila Popal, a senior director at IDC.

Apple, Google, and Samsung typically release new models in the summer and fall to capitalize on holiday sales. That’s when the true impact of Trump’s tariffs on smartphone prices will become clearer. But for now, smartphone buyers likely have little to worry about.

“When it comes to tariffs on Chinese goods, I think the fear is bigger than the actual impact,” Ives concluded.